Research

Applied Econometrics · Inference Economics · Agentic Innovation Economics · Digital Finance · International Economics

Prof. Niankara’s research is conducted through the BRASS Digital Lab — the UAE’s first and only RegTech and SupTech firm covering all 76+ accredited higher education institutions — and the Finance & Banking Department at Al Ain University’s College of Business. His work spans six interconnected research programmes, organized below.

🔬 Browse All 27 Working Papers on the BRASS Digital Lab Research Portal »

⚡ Inference Economics

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The defining and pioneering strand of his research programme. Inference Economics treats the AI inference token — the atomic commodity that gives access to machine cognition — as a formal economic good with supply, demand, price, welfare implications, and distributional consequences.

Core theoretical constructs:

  • Token Production Function — formalizing how AI inference capacity is produced from compute, data, and model capital.
  • Token Kuznets Curve — the inverted-U relationship between AI-token intensity and economic inequality.
  • Jevons Paradox of AI Tokens — efficiency gains in inference may paradoxically increase aggregate cognitive-compute demand.

Working Papers:

The Inference Economy: Token Consumption, Software Productivity, and Jevons Paradox Dynamics in Artificial Intelligence Proposes and validates three novel economic relationships: the Token Production Function, the Token Kuznets Curve, and the Jevons Paradox of AI Tokens, using a calibrated simulation framework. 34 min read · May 2026

Tokens as Technology: AI Inference, Labor Augmentation, and Long-Run Software Productivity Growth Develops a macroeconomic growth theory in which AI inference tokens enter the software production function as a Harrod-neutral labor-augmenting technology. 33 min read · May 2026

Joint Scope–Scale Efficiency in Token Consumption under Parallelised Inference: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Large Language Model Systems Introduces a production-theoretic framework proving that model capacity and task scope are complements in LLM inference efficiency, with empirical evidence from a 52-institution SupTech deployment. 39 min read · April 2026

The Transformative Role of Model Context Protocol (MCP) in the AI-Driven API Economy A quasi-experimental difference-in-differences study on 10,000 simulated firms showing MCP adoption reduces integration costs by 29.77–32.38% and increases API call volume. 33 min read · April 2026

Inference Economics in the AI Era: Research Programme Forthcoming research programme overview — the economics of AI inference markets, compute pricing, inference-as-a-service dynamics, and marginal cost trajectories. June 2026

🤖 Agentic Innovation Economics

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Agentic Innovation Economics (AIE) extends classical endogenous growth theory to accommodate the emergence of autonomous AI agents as independent innovators alongside human researchers — studying their impact on innovation ecosystems, market dynamics, firm boundaries, and economic growth.

Working Papers:

Agentic Innovation Economics: Autonomous AI Agents and the Future of Endogenous Technological Change Introduces the AIE formal theoretical framework, extending endogenous growth theory to autonomous AI agents. 46 min read · April 2026

A Complete Formal Endogenous Growth Model with Autonomous AI Innovation Agents: Theory, Equilibrium, and Simulation A complete formal endogenous growth model where autonomous AI agents function as independent innovators alongside human researchers, with equilibrium analysis and full simulation results. 47 min read · April 2026

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Fresh Graduate Labor Demand: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Industry and Firm Heterogeneity IEEE conference paper modelling AI’s dual role — substitution and complementarity — in fresh graduate labour demand using a CES production framework, Monte Carlo simulation, and policy analysis. 34 min read · March 2026

Agentic Innovation Economics: Research Programme Forthcoming research programme on agent-based economic innovation — how autonomous AI agents reshape innovation ecosystems, market dynamics, and firm boundaries. July 2026

🌐 Digitalization, Inclusion & Development

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Empirical analysis of how digital and financial inclusion reshape household welfare, firm productivity, credit access, and development outcomes — with geographic focus on Burkina Faso, WAEMU, the UAE, and the global open economy.

Working Papers:

Application of Advanced Statistical Process Control Methodologies to Regional Consumption Process Monitoring: Evidence from the WAEMU Bloc Pioneers the application of SPC to regional economic phenomena using EHCVM household survey data (2018/2019 and 2021/2022) from WAEMU’s 103 strata. 79 min read · April 2026

Financial Inclusion Effects on Firms’ Quality Certification and Sales Performance Examines how formal financial inclusion, digital strategies, and international quality certification jointly influence firm sales performance using data from 96,952 firms. 34 min read · April 2026

Formal Financial Inclusion and Firms’ Access to Operational Credit Facilities in the Open Banking Era Investigates how formal financial inclusion (FFI) influences firms’ access to overdrafts and credit lines in the open banking era. 29 min read · April 2026

Digital and Financial Inclusion in Burkina Faso: Impacts on Household Welfare and the Mediating Role of the COVID-19 Pandemic Examines how mobile phone ownership, internet access, and bank account possession influence household food and non-food consumption in Burkina Faso using EHCVM data. 38 min read · April 2026

Open Banking Maturity, Financial Inclusion, and Firm Productivity: Global Evidence from Enterprise Surveys Explores how national Open Banking maturity and firm-level financial inclusion jointly influence credit access and labor productivity in the global economy. 32 min read · April 2026

Trading in Digital Financial Markets: A Microeconometric Analysis of Retail Investment Demand in the UAE Develops and estimates a micro-founded trading demand function for retail investors in the UAE using a synthetic dataset of 10,000 digitally-active investors. 48 min read · April 2026

📈 Strategic Orientation Economics

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Formal and empirical analysis of how firms’ strategic orientations — digital strategy, quality certification, governance architecture, and saving strategies — shape their performance across heterogeneous institutional environments.

Working Papers:

Evaluating the Influence of Digital Strategy on the Interplay between Quality Certification and Sales Performance Using Data Science and Machine Learning Algorithms Published in Journal of Open Innovation (Vol. 10, Issue 3, 2024). Bivariate Gumbel copula regression on 121,429 World Bank Enterprise Survey firms across 148 economies. 31 min read

Comparative Saving Strategy Effectiveness Analysis in the Global Economy: A Multidimensional Dominance Approach Using the 2025 Global Findex Database Individuals strategically combine formal bank accounts, mobile money, and informal savings clubs — this paper constructs a Saving Strategy Index to compare their welfare dominance globally. 48 min read · April 2026

Comparative Effectiveness Analysis of Firms’ External Validation and Market Signaling Strategies in Europe, Central Asia and MENA Markets In information-asymmetric and institutionally heterogeneous ECA and MENA markets, firms face strategic choices on external validation — this paper compares their effectiveness. 50 min read · May 2026

Governance Architecture and Political Embeddedness as Strategic Orientations: Firm-Level Evidence from Europe, Central Asia and MENA Markets Formal governance structures and political embeddedness are two foundational but analytically distinct dimensions of firm strategy in institutionally complex markets. 48 min read · May 2026

💡 Other Digital Innovation Economics

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Empirical studies of green technology innovation, R&D investment, and innovation orientation across high-income countries and emerging market economies.

Working Papers:

Green Technology Innovation and Firm-Level Technical Efficiency: A Two-Stage Analysis in the Philippines IEEE conference paper. Two-stage DEA-Tobit analysis of 748 Philippine firms (WBES 2024 Green Economy module) finds green innovation improves technical efficiency by 8.7%. 51 min read · March 2026

Developing the Innovation Orientation Index: Empirical Insights from Firm-Level Data in the ECA and MENA Regions Introduces the Innovation Orientation Index (IOI), a composite metric integrating Open Knowledge Innovation, Open R&D Innovation, and Closed R&D Innovation. 15 min read · April 2026

Extensive and Intensive R&D Investments and Firm Output and Process Innovations in High-Income Countries: The Role of Financial Access Copula-based trivariate probit model on 8,422 firms from the USA, UK, Canada, China, and South Korea (2024 WBES microdata). 30 min read · April 2026

Unveiling Innovation Interdependence in Emerging Economies: A Bivariate Copula Analysis of Open and Closed Strategies in ECA and MENA Examines joint determinants of product/service and process innovation among 9,710 private firms across 41 ECA and MENA economies using a bivariate copula model. 32 min read · April 2026

Other Digital Innovation Economics: Research Programme Forthcoming research programme — economics of digital transformation and green innovation including firm-level efficiency impacts and sustainability-driven market dynamics. August 2026

Research Metrics & Profiles

Platform Link
ORCID 0000-0001-7049-0859
Scopus Author ID 57200579496 — 40+ peer-reviewed documents
ResearchGate Ibrahim-Niankara-3
BRASS Digital Lab 27 Working Papers across 6 research programmes

Institutional Affiliations & Awards

  • BRASS Digital Lab — Founder & Director, Al Ain University, College of Business
  • Member: The Econometrics Society (2024–2027)
  • Member: Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Honor Society (2023–2025)
  • Dean’s Award for Quality Research, Al Ain University (2023)
  • Phi Beta Delta Scholar (2008) · Golden Key International Scholar (2008)
  • Oklahoma State University Distinguished Graduate Fellowship Award (2007)

Collaborations Welcome

  • Economics of AI and inference tokens
  • Agentic systems and endogenous growth
  • UAE/GCC higher education RegTech
  • Digital finance, open banking, and financial inclusion
  • Spatial and computational econometrics
  • West African and Gulf development economics